W.12 – David King – Immigration Games


Problem Recognition, Definition, and Evaluation

On Tuesday I’ll be travelling to the states to attend my sister’s wedding. While on my trip to the States, my KITAS will expire. This brings up the question on how to handle my current living situation.

Development of the feasible alternatives

  1. No longer live in Indonesia
  2. Return to Indonesia on a tourist visa
  3. Renew my KITAS while in Los Angeles
  4. Renew my KITAS by making an additional trip to Singapore before returning to Jakarta

Development of cost for feasible alternatives

  1. If I no longer live in Indonesia, that will force me to move home to Las Vegas. Odds are I would have to stay with my sister while starting over. Due to a 10% reported unemployment, realistic is 20% unemployment and most jobs are service based it will be difficult to find employment there. As well my expenses for staying there will be triple my current expenses here.
  2. If I return to Indonesia on a tourist visa it will only cost me $25 to arrive. However, let’s assume I’ll stay here for one year. That means I need to leave the country every 30 days. The cheapest way to do that is to fly to Singapore every month. The average flight to Singapore is about $100 and the Jakarta airport also has an exit tax of $17.65. The total comes out to an expense of $1711.76 cents for the year.
  3. If I do my KITAS while in Los Angeles, I must immediately return within in a week of the telex being sent to Los Angeles. This will force me to complete this task at the end of my trip. This will also force me to make an additional return trip to Los Angeles. The entire duration of the trip will take 6 days. Since Los Angeles is a large town it will cost the price of two plane tickets at $100, 6 nights hotel at $150 per night, and 6 nights of vehicle rental at $50 a day and $500 to process the paperwork. The total cost of this option is $1900.
  4. If I do the KITAS in Singapore, I have the same return time frame as in Los Angeles. It will cost the same $500 to process the paperwork. It will cost $100 for the plane ticket. I will have to spend 3 nights in Singapore at $150 a night. The total cost for this option is $1050.
Alternative Cost Duration Living Preference
1 – Las Vegas $2500 Monthly No
2 – Indonesia Tourist $1711.76 Annual Yes
3 – KITAS LA $1900 Annual Yes
4 – KITAS Singapore $1050 Annual Yes

 

Selection of the criterion

  1. Dominance
  2. Satisficing
  3. Disjunctive Resolution
  4. Lexicography

Analysis and comparison of the alternatives

Paired Comparison – Dominance

Alternative 1 Vs. 2 1 vs. 3 1 vs. 4 2 vs. 3 2 vs. 4 3 vs. 4
Cost 2 > 1 3 > 1 4 > 1 2 > 3 4 > 2 4 > 3
Duration 2 > 1 3 > 1 4 > 1 Same Same Same
Living Preference 2 > 1 3 > 1 4 > 1 Same Same Same
Domination Yes Yes Yes No No No

 

Feasible Ranges for Satisficing

Attribute Minimum Acceptable Value Maximum Acceptable Value Unacceptable Alternative
Cost 0 1500 Alternative1 eliminated by dominance. 2 and 3 are eliminated by maximum value
Duration Annual Annual No effect, but alternatives 1, 2, and 3 are already eliminated
Living Preference Indonesia Indonesia No effect, but alternatives 1, 2, and 3 are already eliminated

 

Selection of the preferred alternative

The preferred alternative is alternative 4 which is to get my KITAS in Singapore.

Performance monitoring and post evaluation results

Based on my results I have found that is more cost effective to stay in Indonesia. The multi attribute decision analysis eliminated all alternatives but one at satisificing eliminating the requirement of Disjunctive Resolution or Lexicography.

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One Response to W.12 – David King – Immigration Games

  1. DrPDG says:

    David,
    EXCELLENT problem but WHY do you insist on using only the “easy” or “simplistic” models? After having been through this course 1.5 times, I cannot begin to imagine why you are not willing to challenge your thinking to the more difficult or complex decision making models?

    I am going to ACCEPT this with the provision that you take the same problem and set it up using COMPENSATORY models. I want to see evidence that you are pushing your knowledge beyond the basics and are willing to challenge yourself to the higher levels of application.

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

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